Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics.

Objectives: We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic. Methods: We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs. Results: The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14. Conclusions: The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

A multi-ancestry genetic study of pain intensity in 598,339 veterans.

Chronic pain is a common problem, with more than one-fifth of adult Americans reporting pain daily or on most days. It adversely affects the quality of life and imposes substantial personal and economic costs. Efforts to treat chronic pain using opioids had a central role in precipitating the opioid crisis. Despite an estimated heritability of 25-50%, the genetic architecture of chronic pain is not well-characterized, in part because studies have largely been limited to samples of European ancestry. To help address this knowledge gap, we conducted a cross-ancestry meta-analysis of pain intensity in 598,339 participants in the Million Veteran Program, which identified 126 independent genetic loci, 69 of which are new. Pain intensity was genetically correlated with other pain phenotypes, level of substance use and substance use disorders, other psychiatric traits, education level and cognitive traits. Integration of the genome-wide association studies findings with functional genomics data shows enrichment for putatively causal genes (n = 142) and proteins (n = 14) expressed in brain tissues, specifically in GABAergic neurons. Drug repurposing analysis identified anticonvulsants, ß-blockers and calcium-channel blockers, among other drug groups, as having potential analgesic effects. Our results provide insights into key molecular contributors to the experience of pain and highlight attractive drug targets.

Transcriptomic Analysis Reveals Novel Regulators of the Scots Pine Stilbene Pathway.

Stilbenes accumulate in Scots pine heartwood where they have important roles in protecting wood from decaying fungi. They are also part of active defense responses, and their production is induced by different (a)biotic stressors. The specific transcriptional regulators as well as the enzyme responsible for activating the stilbene precursor cinnamate in the pathway are still unknown. UV-C radiation was the first discovered artificial stress activator of the pathway. Here, we describe a large-scale transcriptomic analysis of pine needles in response to UV-C and treatment with translational inhibitors, both activating the transcription of stilbene pathway genes. We used the data to identify putative candidates for the missing CoA ligase and for pathway regulators. We further showed that the pathway is transcriptionally activated by phosphatase inhibitor, ethylene and jasmonate treatments, as in grapevine, and that the stilbene synthase promoter retains its inducibility in some of the tested conditions in Arabidopsis, a species that normally does not synthesize stilbenes. Shared features between gymnosperm and angiosperm regulation and partially retained inducibility in Arabidopsis suggest that pathway regulation occurs not only via ancient stress-response pathway(s) but also via species-specific regulators. Understanding which genes control the biosynthesis of stilbenes in Scots pine aids breeding of more resistant trees.

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts.

Introduction: Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. Methods: We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Results: Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Discussion: Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

Few-Shot Learning Enables Population-Scale Analysis of Leaf Traits in Populus trichocarpa.

Plant phenotyping is typically a time-consuming and expensive endeavor, requiring large groups of researchers to meticulously measure biologically relevant plant traits, and is the main bottleneck in understanding plant adaptation and the genetic architecture underlying complex traits at population scale. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging few-shot learning with convolutional neural networks to segment the leaf body and visible venation of 2,906 Populus trichocarpa leaf images obtained in the field. In contrast to previous methods, our approach (a) does not require experimental or image preprocessing, (b) uses the raw RGB images at full resolution, and (c) requires very few samples for training (e.g., just 8 images for vein segmentation). Traits relating to leaf morphology and vein topology are extracted from the resulting segmentations using traditional open-source image-processing tools, validated using real-world physical measurements, and used to conduct a genome-wide association study to identify genes controlling the traits. In this way, the current work is designed to provide the plant phenotyping community with (a) methods for fast and accurate image-based feature extraction that require minimal training data and (b) a new population-scale dataset, including 68 different leaf phenotypes, for domain scientists and machine learning researchers. All of the few-shot learning code, data, and results are made publicly available.

Image-based time series analysis to establish differential disease progression for two Fusarium head blight pathogens in oat spikelets with variable resistance.

Oat-based value-added products have increased their value as healthy foodstuff. Fusarium head blight (FHB) infections and the mycotoxins accumulated to the oat seeds, however, pose a challenge to oat production. The FHB infections are predicted to become more prevalent in the future changing climates and under more limited use of fungicides. Both these factors increase the pressure for breeding new resistant cultivars. Until now, however, genetic links in oats against FHB infection have been difficult to identify. Therefore, there is a great need for more effective breeding efforts, including improved phenotyping methods allowing time series analysis and the identification of molecular markers during disease progression. To these ends, dissected spikelets of several oat genotypes with different resistance profiles were studied by image-based methods during disease progression by Fusarium culmorum or F. langsethiae species. The chlorophyll fluorescence of each pixel in the spikelets was recorded after inoculation by the two Fusarium spp., and the progression of the infections was analyzed by calculating the mean maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm) values for each spikelet. The recorded values were (i) the change in the photosynthetically active area of the spikelet as percentage of its initial size, and (ii) the mean of Fv/Fm values of all fluorescent pixels per spikelet post inoculation, both indicative of the progression of the FHB disease. The disease progression was successfully monitored, and different stages of the infection could be defined along the time series. The data also confirmed the differential rate of disease progression by the two FHB causal agents. In addition, oat varieties with variable responses to the infections were indicated.

Antiviral Strategies Against SARS-CoV-2: A Systems Biology Approach.

The unprecedented scientific achievements in combating the COVID-19 pandemic reflect a global response informed by unprecedented access to data. We now have the ability to rapidly generate a diversity of information on an emerging pathogen and, by using high-performance computing and a systems biology approach, we can mine this wealth of information to understand the complexities of viral pathogenesis and contagion like never before. These efforts will aid in the development of vaccines, antiviral medications, and inform policymakers and clinicians. Here we detail computational protocols developed as SARS-CoV-2 began to spread across the globe. They include pathogen detection, comparative structural proteomics, evolutionary adaptation analysis via network and artificial intelligence methodologies, and multiomic integration. These protocols constitute a core framework on which to build a systems-level infrastructure that can be quickly brought to bear on future pathogens before they evolve into pandemic proportions.

PACER: a novel 3D plant cell wall model for the analysis of non-catalytic and enzymatic responses.

BACKGROUND: Substrate accessibility remains a key limitation to the efficient enzymatic deconstruction of lignocellulosic biomass. Limited substrate accessibility is often addressed by increasing enzyme loading, which increases process and product costs. Alternatively, considerable efforts are underway world-wide to identify amorphogenesis-inducing proteins and protein domains that increase the accessibility of carbohydrate-active enzymes to targeted lignocellulose components. RESULTS: We established a three-dimensional assay, PACER (plant cell wall model for the analysis of non-catalytic and enzymatic responses), that enables analysis of enzyme migration through defined lignocellulose composites. A cellulose/azo-xylan composite was made to demonstrate the PACER concept and then used to test the migration and activity of multiple xylanolytic enzymes. In addition to non-catalytic domains of xylanases, the potential of loosenin-like proteins to boost xylanase migration through cellulose/azo-xylan composites was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The PACER assay is inexpensive and parallelizable, suitable for screening proteins for ability to increase enzyme accessibility to lignocellulose substrates. Using the PACER assay, we visualized the impact of xylan-binding modules and loosenin-like proteins on xylanase mobility and access to targeted substrates. Given the flexibility to use different composite materials, the PACER assay presents a versatile platform to study impacts of lignocellulose components on enzyme access to targeted substrates.

Image-Based Methods to Score Fungal Pathogen Symptom Progression and Severity in Excised Arabidopsis Leaves.

Image-based symptom scoring of plant diseases is a powerful tool for associating disease resistance with plant genotypes. Advancements in technology have enabled new imaging and image processing strategies for statistical analysis of time-course experiments. There are several tools available for analyzing symptoms on leaves and fruits of crop plants, but only a few are available for the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis). Arabidopsis and the model fungus Botrytis cinerea (Botrytis) comprise a potent model pathosystem for the identification of signaling pathways conferring immunity against this broad host-range necrotrophic fungus. Here, we present two strategies to assess severity and symptom progression of Botrytis infection over time in Arabidopsis leaves. Thus, a pixel classification strategy using color hue values from red-green-blue (RGB) images and a random forest algorithm was used to establish necrotic, chlorotic, and healthy leaf areas. Secondly, using chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlFl) imaging, the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) was determined to define diseased areas and their proportion per total leaf area. Both RGB and ChlFl imaging strategies were employed to track disease progression over time. This has provided a robust and sensitive method for detecting sensitive or resistant genetic backgrounds. A full methodological workflow, from plant culture to data analysis, is described.

Potential Pathogenicity Determinants Identified from Structural Proteomics of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.

Despite SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 being equipped with highly similar protein arsenals, the corresponding zoonoses have spread among humans at extremely different rates. The specific characteristics of these viruses that led to such distinct outcomes remain unclear. Here, we apply proteome-wide comparative structural analysis aiming to identify the unique molecular elements in the SARS-CoV-2 proteome that may explain the differing consequences. By combining protein modeling and molecular dynamics simulations, we suggest nonconservative substitutions in functional regions of the spike glycoprotein (S), nsp1, and nsp3 that are contributing to differences in virulence. Particularly, we explain why the substitutions at the receptor-binding domain of S affect the structure-dynamics behavior in complexes with putative host receptors. Conservation of functional protein regions within the two taxa is also noteworthy. We suggest that the highly conserved main protease, nsp5, of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is part of their mechanism of circumventing the host interferon antiviral response. Overall, most substitutions occur on the protein surfaces and may be modulating their antigenic properties and interactions with other macromolecules. Our results imply that the striking difference in the pervasiveness of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV among humans seems to significantly derive from molecular features that modulate the efficiency of viral particles in entering the host cells and blocking the host immune response.

Potentially adaptive SARS-CoV-2 mutations discovered with novel spatiotemporal and explainable AI models.

BACKGROUND: A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp614Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro323Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

Chlorophyll fluorescence imaging for monitoring effects of Heterobasidion parviporum small secreted protein induced cell death and in planta defense gene expression.

Heterobasidion parviporum Niemelä & Korhonen is a necrotrophic fungal pathogen of Norway spruce (Picea abies). The H. parviporum genome encodes numerous necrotrophic small secreted proteins (SSP) which might be important for promoting and sustaining the disease development. However, their transcriptional dynamics and plant defense response during infection are largely unknown. In this study, we identified a necrotrophic SSP named HpSSP35.8 and its coding gene was highly expressed in the pre-symptomatic phase of the host (Norway spruce) infection. We explored the impact of HpSSP35.8 on non-host Nicotiana benthamiana using Agrobacterium-mediated transient expression system under visible spectrum RGB imaging and chlorophyll fluorescence imaging. The results showed that HpSSP35.8 triggered a form of SSP-associated programmed cell death, accompanied by a decrease in the plant photosynthetic activity. Defense-related genes including WRKY12, ethylene response factor (ERF1α) and a chitinase gene PR4 were up-regulated in both HpSSP35.8-N. benthamiana interaction and H. parviporum-Norway spruce pathosystem. This study also highlighted the potential to use the chlorophyll fluorescence imaging approach to monitor both the indirect effects of SSP and also for the selection of other potential effector-like protein candidates.

Genomic and Phenomic Screens for Flower Related RING Type Ubiquitin E3 Ligases in Arabidopsis.

Flowering time control integrates endogenous as well as environmental signals to promote flower development. The pathways and molecular networks involved are complex and integrate many modes of signal transduction. In plants ubiquitin mediated protein degradation pathway has been proposed to be as important mode of signaling as phosphorylation and transcription. To systematically study the role of ubiquitin signaling in the molecular regulation of flowering we have taken a genomic approach to identify flower related Ubiquitin Proteasome System components. As a large and versatile gene family the RING type ubiquitin E3 ligases were chosen as targets of the genomic screen. The complete list of Arabidopsis RING E3 ligases were retrieved and verified in the Arabidopsis genome v11 and their differential expression was used for their categorization into flower organs or developmental stages. Known regulators of flowering time or floral organ development were identified in these categories through literature search and representative mutants for each category were purchased for functional characterization by growth and morphological phenotyping. To this end, a workflow was developed for high throughput phenotypic screening of growth, morphology and flowering of nearly a thousand Arabidopsis plants in one experimental round.